Marriage –A markov model
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1a | 1a' | 1b | 1b' | 1c | 1c' | 1d | 1d' | 1e | 1e' | if | 1f' | 3A | 3B |
0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
1a | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1a' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1b' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1c | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1c' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1d' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1e | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
1e' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
if | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
1f' | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
3A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
THERE IS A SLIGHT MISTAKE IN THE DIAGRAM STATE 1 IS MARRIED STATE (NOT "UNMARRIED "AS THE DIA SHOWS..)
This is the Markov table of the marriage process.
3A and 3B are final absorbing states
Since the probability of having a happy ending (ie 3A ) from unhappy phase(1.f') is low I have kept it at 0.1 ..Similarly from 1.f --à3B
I have assumed equal measure of probabilities for favorable as well as unfavorable events (ie. 0.5 probability)
I will shortly calculate the probability of being in state 3A(happy) from state 2(unmarried) and from state 1(married). Rite now I am sleepy so will do the remainder later
Comments
You must change the diagram because is it possible and quite probable for unmarried to end up happy. (refer the list of reason's On my blog)