Marriage –A markov model



0

1

2

1a

1a'

1b

1b'

1c

1c'

1d

1d'

1e

1e'

if

1f'

3A

3B

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0.5

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0.5

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1b

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1b'

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1c

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0.5

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0

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0

1c'

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0.5

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1d

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0.5

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0

0

0

1d'

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0

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1e

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0

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0.1

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3A

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0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

3B

0

0

0

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0

0

0

0

0

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0

0

1



















THERE IS A SLIGHT MISTAKE IN THE DIAGRAM STATE 1 IS MARRIED STATE (NOT "UNMARRIED "AS THE DIA SHOWS..)


This is the Markov table of the marriage process.

3A and 3B are final absorbing states


Since the probability of having a happy ending (ie 3A ) from unhappy phase(1.f') is low I have kept it at 0.1 ..Similarly from 1.f --à3B

I have assumed equal measure of probabilities for favorable as well as unfavorable events (ie. 0.5 probability)


I will shortly calculate the probability of being in state 3A(happy) from state 2(unmarried) and from state 1(married). Rite now I am sleepy so will do the remainder later



Comments

Yemula Pradeep said…
I have quickly gone through the state transition diagram. But you have not shown any path from unmarried -> die happy.

You must change the diagram because is it possible and quite probable for unmarried to end up happy. (refer the list of reason's On my blog)

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