Dont know
Some things are utterly unknowable, whatever you try to predict and whatever you try to extrapolate, they can't be known. A classic example is that of effect of AI. Now, when AI came into prominence and I say prominence because AI is basically machine learning, it's not artificial intelligence, there is no intelligence involved here.
It is only machine learning and the way it was hyped up by the management gurus and all was very clear that no one knew what one was talking of but no one wanted to be sounding ignorant. That being said, there have been many times when something has come up in a social space or in a media space where people have started predicting stuff like it could be something like FIRE that is financially independent at early. There could be something like jobs are bad, freelancing is good, there should be some kind of a, you know, saving plan should be this and this.
All this presume that a lot of things are going to be stable. Like for example, AI presumes that the growth of artificial intelligence or more correctly machine learning will keep on growing exponential to every form of life and soon we will be done into robots. It is a bit sacrosanct to sit back and think about that.
There's a lot of things we do not know and there's a lot of things that can go either way. There are so many factors. It is like a very, very long non-linear equations where the only part of it is maybe known to us from the past experiences and future we cannot predict anything.
It reminds me of the Godel's incomplete theorem which is that any system which is complete will not be able to describe itself and any system which will be able to describe itself will always have some theorems which cannot be proved. Which that means is that no system or no equations or no predictions can be proven to be true in future not because of anything else because the amount of data available is so erratic, non-structured and impossible to gain. This kind of thing was thought long time back with weather systems where the scientists thought that if they could find out the historical weather of any place they could predict it to a minute time or minute accuracy.
Hence they placed these sensors all over the country especially in US to gather these basic five or six datas like rainfall, humidity, temperature, wind etc over a period of time and they thought they could predict it because of extrapolation. However using those differential equations it led to a failure of those data to predict anything and that led to birth of a new science called chaos which was basically the basis of this science was a scientist called Lorentz trying to predict a weather system based on three differential equations with six variables and once he left the equations on run he realised that even with the minute variation of 0.00001 that is six zeros followed by one the weather systems could change drastically from a desert to a snowstorm. It just proves how valuable our systems are and how we should not be alarmist in reacting to anything.
It is okay to say we do not know what is going to happen in future rather than being so sure and predicting the doom or the boom. It's as much as a game of chance as it is that of knowledge.

Comments