Stupid random thoughts
Predicting the time to failure of a complex system is basically the aim of reliability analysis. I mean If at the end of the day I cant tell when a system would fail its stupid of me to study that system. Frankly I think the probability approach is not suitable because it takes data with a bias. MTBF must fit a probability curve. We twist and turn trying to fit a curve with substantial data falling out. Its not a nice way for PROGNOSIS. If I cant tell you weather the toss will be a heads or tails , What use is of the word '50%' probability. My hypothesis of diagnosing a fault is this: Suppose we line up the times between failures on a strainght line . With breaks consisting of up times and solid lines consisting of failure times , can we find a pattern? Can we find some scaling? Can we find repetative patterns of small failures inbetween big failures? Can we find a fractal dimension of the pattern of failures? and Can we extrapolate this? I mean if I find that the MTBF li...