Stupid random thoughts

Predicting the time to failure of a complex system is basically the aim of reliability analysis. I mean If at the end of the day I cant tell when a system would fail its stupid of me to study that system.
Frankly I think the probability approach is not suitable because it takes data with a bias. MTBF must fit a probability curve. We twist and turn trying to fit a curve with substantial data falling out. Its not a nice way for PROGNOSIS. If I cant tell you weather the toss will be a heads or tails , What use is of the word '50%' probability.
My hypothesis of diagnosing a fault is this:

Suppose we line up the times between failures on a strainght line . With breaks consisting of up times and solid lines consisting of failure times , can we find a pattern? Can we find some scaling? Can we find repetative patterns of small failures inbetween big failures? Can we find a fractal dimension of the pattern of failures? and Can we extrapolate this? I mean if I find that the MTBF line of say a pump is say of .76 dimension, can I make a guess about how it is going to be in next ten years?

My central question is this...Is there a pattern or scaling in failure times? It could be possible that the pattern squezes as we near the death of the system but central idea is this..IS there a pattern? Is there a rythm to way things go down?

I dont kno..but I strongly feel that there is . there is a song of systems going duff..Its a song with not-random beats. Its a song we havent analysed. We hear just random beats and try and fit a curve ..but fitting a curve doest take into account the sequence :

For example say the time to failures is : 1,3,4,2,3,2,3,3,3
Now by probabilty analysis the points are just points,they are taken and fitted around a weibull distribution and parameters are taken out. Where do we take into account weather it was 1>3>4>2..? or 1>4>3>2?

What matters is cumulative time and time to failure..We never study the pattern. do we?

a little bit..

There will be always a little left..
There will always be a litlle right...
In the world of balance..
things will be little tight..
A little patch of sunshine ..
A fistfull of moondust..
Some patch of clear blue skies..
And a little bit of mismatch..
a little left..
a little right..
there will always be a skew..
a little more broth..a little less brew...
a little here ..and a little there..
somewhat this , somewhat that..
thats what it always is..
a little of this and a little of that ;)

Deep inside..

Deep inside ....isnt a nice place. Deep inside is a scary place. A place of ghosts , apparitions and blood. Deep inside is a place no one wants to go. Light rarely enters and darkness rarely leaves. Its pulsating, dark and moist. It has a smell ..a mesmerisingly damp smell. Deep inside is a small beat...beating to its own rythm..sometimes erratic, sometimes sad and very rarely happy. Deep inside is a soft place, exposed to the elements it would wither and die ..but in the moist arena of memories it grows its own fungus. Its own poison ..its own nectar. It has its own movie and its own projector. Sometimes old vintage movies are shown ..rarely new movies come. Few people stay deep inside. Some are wanted some just refuse to go away. Deep inside loves darkness..it hates light. Light chases away shadows ..and deep inside IS a shadow. Deep inside is a dirty place..its a bad place..its a vulnerable place. Its not a place one visits of a picnic..its a dungeon that most people are dragged to. There they are forced to watch the movie they hate the most...smell the smell they hate most..live the part of life they hate most. Its a place no one wants to go but ends up invariably. Deep inside is a parasite that cant be killed, a parasite that cant be cured..its an animal which lives so deep that to kill it would be to kill the being. 

The CCNA thingy

This may be a bit out of the line for a blogspot entry but what the heck. I thought I would put down a bit of the summary of a course on networking. It was a 14 day course and kind of interesting because it opened my eyes a lil.

We generally use internet so often that we tend to take it for granted but there is another world lurking below the software jargon. The world of switches and routers that kind of is boring but in some ways is terribly easy to know.

The course concentrated on use and configuration of Routers(of course CISCO ones). What we learnt is this:

1. Routers are "intelligent" switches operating on an OS called IOS.
2. Routers connect one network to another.
3.You can use routers to monitor traffic between networks and also do a bit of jiggery-pookery to configure them.
4. Basically you can tell them 'connect this network to that'..poor guys will do that.But even more in teresting is that you can tell them..'dont allow this ,dont allow that etc'
5. The basic identity of the end device that is your computer is the IP address and the MAC adress..its like the id of an individual.
6. Switches are low level routers used for LAN and guess wat you can programme them too to do your bidding.

7. TELNET is an awesome way to get inside the Switch /Router from any computer.

8. Servers can be any computer..basically all servers do is to store tables. Depending upon your choice, tell the server to use the relevant table to route traffic. Sab tables ka khel hai.

9. A programme called Packet Tracer is the software you use to configure switches/router on a GUI. A CLI is the alternative way to do it. Using it you can give your switch any property thats allowed.

10. Tea is a must in a 4 hr class

A distant love

When a group of us got our first few months of pay packets... flushed with new found wealth and an adrenalin rush of acquiring gizmos commensurate with our pumped up bravado...most of my freinds bought their first bikes and the first music systems. Then there were a silent competetion to buy the most PMPO output music systems and the highest BHP bikes. A few opted out in the start itself . Reconciled to lower range "practical" bikes and box stereo midis. The Hero Honda splendour and the small philips hi-fidelity systems ..well which did their 'functions'..!! Then there were high players ..the Honda CBZ/Bullet guys with high end Music sysetms from  Sony to JBL.
I bought a Suzuki fiero and went hunting for a music system . I somehow had narrowed on a sony when I came across a BOSE wave radio in a Pune showroom. I was zapped. The Sony was nowhere near the sound of a Bose. And even pricewise the comparision wasnt fair. The Sony was in the range of 15k while the bose one was 29k.
29 k for a Music system was beyond my ken ..but then I had decided that I would either buy a Bose or never buy a system. To keep saving for that system I settled on a Rs 400 amplispeaker wired to my walk phone. And this continued till I bought a PC Speaker (bose) for 5k in 2003.
Even till now the Wave Radio of Bose was beyond my budget and I couldnt make myself 'waste' 29 k on a small 'dabba'. Even if it was the best dabba!
Life rolled on and I went through many ups and downs. Emotionally, socially and financially. Every one year or so I would have some or the other chance to go up to a Bose showroom and hear the system play classical music and come back..thinking.."someday..someday..I will come back from a run ..bath and change ...take a nice drink and put a great ghazal on this one and listen it through the night". That someday somehow was always out of reach.
A few days ago..When I landed in mumbai..I was desperate for a small music player. I went with a view to check out a small player in the 10k range. I came across a new product that Bose was selling .A wireless sound dock. It was almost double ,19k than what I had in mind. But it was a Bose and had decent acoustics. But as I was listening to it..the Wave radio had started in the background. I I realised that , yes it was an illogical decision but a decision that was 9 years long overdue.
I almost instantenously paid for the system..Bought it to my room and wired it up. The first sound wafting out of it was no technical marvel but sounds of 9 years of waiting ...! I know it will be difficult to justify...it will be difficult to logicalise a >30k 'dabba'..but I also know that life is full of somethings that are worth that serious lack of rationality. Maybe this is just one of them ..Maybe 

troubled!!

troubled sleep..troubled deep...
troubled is the mind within..
troubled is the body pure..
troubled is the mind in sin...

troubled by the solitary reaper..
troubled by the lonely sleeper..
troubled in the way to conform..
troubled in substance and form..

troubled by the wanton peace..
troubled by the loving vice..
troubled by the past galore..
troubled by the misty future..

troubled by the false promises..
troubled by the unkept leases
troubled by the wretched glory,..
troubled by a well acted story..

troubled by the lack of trust...
troubled by the bubble burst..
troubled by the excellent acting..
troubled by the lamb so trusting..

troubled by the thoughts..
the would be's and the ought's
troubled by interest..
and troubled by the disgust...

In defence of our politicians

There was a story shared by a guy on a social site. It goes like this.... A man goes to a shop and sees a bronze statue of a rat in a shop. He kind of likes it and asks the shopkeeper for the price. The Shopkeeper says "10 $ for the statue and 1000$ for its story"....Now being an Indian , the customer pays only 10 $ and wallks out with the bronze rat. As he walks out ..hundreds and thousands of rats get out from all alleyways and corners and start following him. He gets scared and runs for the river. Faced with a multitude of rats he in panic throws the statue into the river..The rats all jump into the river following the statue and die .
The man rushes back to the shop ..panting. The shopkeeper smiles and asks him"So, now u would want to buy the story?"...The man looks stunned and shouts back.."Fuck the story..u got any bronze statue of an Indian Politician!!?"
Good natured , apt and however funny the story may be ..It underlines the deep resentment that the political class inspires in a "normal" man on the street. Everytime we win something in sports, entertainment or otherwise..we almost always have a politician countering it with something pretty cheap and despicable. True we hate our politicians. But before we jump the gun and start a fatwa calling for a beheading of all of the political class, we must sit down and first have a good look at ourselves first. A politician in India is not a foreign specis. He/She/It was born in the same society that he rules , he was born with the same ethics and morals that the society followed. He was born amidst us with the same aspirations and ambitions as that of
his electorate. Then suddenly how come he became the villian of the movie? How come he is responsible for most of organised crime business? How come he rapes women and kills children like there is no tomorrow? How come a nice guy like us becomes a "Politician"? How come?...

Nice guy like us?? Hmm...!! Nice guys like us? Yes of course..Nice guys like us ! Nice guys who never follow any rules..or rather follw rules as it suits them? Nice guys those never ever have any moral issues with accepting bribes..or giving them? Nice guys who will create an ethical or moral debate over the length of a girls skirt but will eat in the vicinity of a leaking sewerage pipe without even thinking a bit about the remedy for the same . Nice guys who will hoot for shaking boobs and jiggling bums but will never have the ability to see the art behind the show? Nice guys who will twist the story to suit their version. Nice guys who given enough leeway would molest every maid that ever came their way. Nice guys who will flick that extra earphones from aeroplanes, pinch butts of women in bus and spit over a nice clean corner..

Of course , we wonder how such devilish politicians came from amidst us..We wonder!

Jamnagar/Vadinar Maritime santuary

The most difficult thing to do on a Sunday morning is to get up from bed at 530. Despite the gargantuan efforts needed we all at Jamnagar decided that a visit to the Narura/Vadinar Maritime sanctaury was worth it.
So packed in tow cars we drove on to the Dwaraka-Jamnagar highway , took a right turn at Vadinar and reached the sanctuary at around 830. Its 55 kms dot from the Valsura naval base and fees are 250 rupees per car, 100 for camera and 200 for guide. Guide is a must.

We approached the sea bed and walked almost 2 kms inside in the knee deep waters as the guide showed us baby octopusses, corals, and starfishes. Missed Turthes and sting ray.

Must carry, includes, hats, waterproof rubber sandals and a great camera.

The mundaneness of life!!

There have been so much of gyaan on life that one tends to get overwhelmed ...especially when coming to leading it the "correct" way. People rush to godmen , psychologists, quacks and philosophers in order to find "deeper" meaning of life!! Sometimes following them to such a degree of imitation that their own lives becomes a sad caricature of those they seek to follow. Its a sad thing to see.
Sad because its like a begger sitting over a trunk of golden coins , asking for pennies. The men that tend to lead him never encourage to open that trunk because of the simplest reason that once he gets hold of that trunk's keys then he will never need pennies from you.

My two pennies about life (not to be followed or taken seriously) is this. Life is a verb and not a noun. Its a continous process and no one ..NO ONE ..knows the "right way". They might have done something which would have worked out for them but given a slightly different scenario it would have worked totally opposite! Hence to ape someone else's life is not only stupid but catastrophic.

Morality and ethics are not trash , however one must realise that absolute ethic and absolute morality is stupidity taken to extreme. If anyone starts his talks with morality and ethics ..be prepared for a truckload of bullshit ahead.

Political correctness is another great paradox of life. The politically correct are often the most useless, talentless and unexciting blokes that you can ever meet. However the love that the general humanity bestows upon these assholes is inversely proportional to the use they have to humanity.

Love is a rare thing. Grab it whenever it comes your way. Even if its fleeting, even if its stupid, it has the rare distinction to make you happy. Love in whatever form, be that of automobiles, clothes , persons ..whatever shows that there is still a small part of you which can take decisions on its own.

As far as I can deduce, life is basically a mundane grey and undulating landscape. You have to make it exciting, lively and lovely. If you cant spare the honesty and perseverance to do it..probably you are just happy the way you are..

Stop wasting others time ;)

The Fool!

The fool is the epitome of survival. He has no special talents hence he doesnt feel the pain of being kept away from anything. He doesnt love anything so deeply as it can hurt him and hence he is powerfull. He suffers from no ego or shame as he has neither. His standards change with every situation hence he fits in everywhere.His flexibilty gives him great powers. His passivity is his strength. Hedoesnt fight, he waits for his competetors to give up. He doesnt have to do any thing to the best quality, mediocrity is his right. His aims are dictated by the biggest group he belongs to and hence he is a team player. He can sacrifice his love for work because there is nothing to love. His priorities are vague hence they never interfere in his drudgery. He will laugh if the majority laughs and will cry if the majority cries. He will do everything with great averageness and hence will have a presence. His expectations are zero and he doesnt posess a spinal cord.

He is invincible. Never ever understimate the power of a fool !!

Chikni Chameli's murder

 The first time I heard the ''Chikni Chameli" Song(yeah I heard it before I saw it) , it struck me as quite catchy. Ignore the 'pahua' bit..thats so 80's(Now its pegs).Infact I saw the original marathi song and although shabbily picturised , the tune was the USP..no doubt. 
Then I saw the famed song on TV. 

With the start of the song, Ms Kaif, comes lumbering into the frame.Her huge and immovable butt trying to ram into the camera lens. Then she tries a classic 'jhatka'...And I fell off my chair. What the hell are you doing,maam? The pelvis of a woman is decidedly much more flexible than a man, and hence women are naturals doing the jhatkas(you never almost see a man doing that). But but but, Ms Kaif managed to pull off the impossible,she made the jhatka look as un-sexy as possible. It was as if she was thrusting the ..err. ...base ,at  the camera. And believe you me, one never insults the camera and gets away with it. In the next frame Ms Kaif is shaking her boobs and trying to look 'seductive'..oh yeah with eyes like the 'joker in batman'..one doesnt leave much to imagination.

So the entire song, while the background dancers try their best to put some rythm into the beats, Ms Kaif, brutally mauls the beautiful dance moves. A gunny sack with mutton stuffed and jiggled infront of the frame could have been sexier.You can infact hear the cut to cut moves of the dance master. Jhatka..1,2,3,4..now tilt your head...jhatka no2, 1,2,3,4.....chest thrust..1,2,3,4...now smile. Okk,now lets have a boob shake..1,2..1,2..good..CUTT!!

As per her expressions , I have seen better and more expressive Manmohan Singh. Dear ms Kaif, you really cant get away with opening your pout everytime(whats wrong with her lips? ..too much plastic surgery or just plain bee bite?). Its highly deplorable that most of India finds you sexy. (as longs as you are gori and chikni..I guess you are the dreamgal). But please dont overdo it. Sexy and you are antonyms. Dont kill the famed item numbers please, they are a succor to us despo Indians.
Dear Ms Kaif,For classes please have a look at munni badnaam song. You will find the alleviation of that song to almost classic level by Malaika Arora. And look where have you got that pretty song into . Have a bit of shame . Only fat white butt will not get you art..! Neither will you be exonerated on the charges of murdering an awesome song . Here is wishing that someday justice will catch up with you and bring you to book !!


And will beat your oversized ass with a wide spatula to death.